Why De’Von Achane Will Lead NFL Running Backs in Receiving Yards in 2024

There’s No Game Plan for Achane

There are three reasons why Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane will lead NFL running backs in receiving yards in 2024:

1. He’s the fastest kid alive.

2. Video analysis shows extraordinary receiving potential—

   1. as a gadget weapon;

   2. as a backfield receiver;

   3. and as a wide receiver.

3. Statistical analysis supports these claims and suggests that head coach Mike McDaniel’s offensive system is conducive to receiving production from its running back(s). 

1.  FASTEST KID ALIVE

This observation does not require detailed examination. De’Von Achane is the fastest kid alive.

This is one guy whose highlight tape does tell the whole story. De’Von Achane turns ordinary plays into field-length touchdowns. De'Von Achane’s breathtaking speed popped off the screen during his epic rookie year as a Miami Dolphin. Achane first caught my eye as a Texas A&M Aggie with flashes in his freshman and sophomore years—such as his standout all-purpose performance in an upset win against Alabama in 2021—and he capped off his legendary college career with a put-the-team-on-my-back game of 215 yards and 2 TD versus LSU in 2022. De'Von Achane was also an accomplished 100m, 200m, and 4x400m sprinter on the Texas A&M Track & Field team. 

Through Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season (prior to his six-week injury absence), Achane averaged a stupendous 12.1 rushing yards per attempt. He scored more TDs through his first four games than any other RB in NFL history and was the first player in league history to rush for 100 yards and average 10 yards per carry in three straight games. De'Von Achane finished the season as the first running back to average more than 7.5 rushing yards per attempt since Beattie Feathers in 1934. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, De'Von Achane was clocked at a top speed over 21.5 mph on 3 different occasions; the only ball carrier with more appearances in the Top 20 was the Cheetah himself, Tyreek Hill, with 4. Speed kills, as they say, but De'Von Achane’s speed is a vaporizing, soul-reaping explosiveness that confuses and demoralizes his opponents. 

However, De'Von Achane is not a one-dimensional player.

Achane has excellent vision. He sets up zone blocks with patience and cuts into developing lanes with quick-thinking recognition. He changes direction in the open field and evades defensive pursuit angles.

Achane sees the field very well, unleashing his full potential as a historically explosive football player. According to Pro Football Reference, Achane’s 4.7 yards before contact per attempt was 1st among NFL players with at least 50 run attempts. According to Pro Football Focus, Achane’s Breakaway Run Rate of 54% was 1st in the NFL (min. 50 run att.), and his PFF Elusive Rating of 153.5 was, again, 1st in the NFL (min. 50 run att.).

Achane is a strong and balanced ball carrier. His 5’9”, 188 lbs. build is not “small”, it is compact, with a 27.8 Body Mass Index (BMI) that compares to Christian McCaffrey (28.2). Achane breaks tackles in the open field and plunges past the line to gain in short yardage situations. His reduced surface area makes him difficult to cleanly wrap up and take down, and he consistently churns his legs for yards after contact. According to Pro Football Reference, Achane averaged 3.1 yards after contact per attempt, which was 1st in the NFL (min. 50 run att.), and his broken tackle rate of 7.9 run att. per broken tackle ranked 4th (min. 50 run att.).

De'Von Achane is a rare football player. Many athletes have logged impressive performances in the 40-yard dash, Achane included, but speed is best measured in pads and cleats, on grass, with all 22 competitors on the field. De'Von Achane is flash and substance, and he’s only begun to realize his true potential. 

2. VIDEO ANALYSIS

De'Von Achane was utilized as a receiver in a potent mix of passing concepts. #28 almost broke several massive pass plays, not found on any highlight reel or box score, which would have favorably skewed his receiving production and dramatically shifted his reputation as a dual-threat. If Mike McDaniel wields the receiver ability displayed by De'Von Achane on tape, NFL defenses will be at their mercy.

YouTube link

3. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The evidence on tape is also supported by quantitative data. According to Rotowire, in 2023, De’Von Achane lined up as a wide receiver on 79 plays, which was 7th among all NFL running backs… despite playing only 9 full games! Achane’s 8.78 wide receiver snaps per game ranks 3rd in this category. The trend is stronger when focused on the slot receiver split. Achane lined up in the slot on 58 plays, 4th-most among NFL running backs. #5 on that list? Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert. HC Mike McDaniel is clearly at the top of the league in utilizing running backs in wide receiver alignments. Given Achane’s prolific per-game slot receiver usage, it is reasonable to speculate that a large portion of Mostert’s slot reps would’ve gone to Achane last year and/or will go to Achane this year. In 2024, De’Von Achane’s receiver usage will be comparable to that of Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson.

Achane made the most of his opportunities. According to Pro Football Reference, Achane’s 9.7 yards after catch per reception ranked 6th among all NFL players with at least 25 catches. Achane’s 7.3 yards per reception ranked 22nd among NFL running backs (min. 25 catches). According to Rotowire, Achane was targeted on 26.1% of his routes (10th among RBs with min. 25 catches) and he produced 1.32 yards per route run (12th). The best stat of all? Achane had 0 drops on his 37 targets. 

4. WHAT COULD GO WRONG?

There are plenty of criticisms of my bold hypothesis.

De’Von Achane is short. He’s 5’8” tall with 29” arms and a surprisingly low 33” vertical jump. As a smaller target, Achane will need to generate separation more consistently and to a greater degree than most receivers, and Tua Tagovailoa will need to put the ball directly on him.

De’Von Achane missed six games because of a knee injury. Achane’s light weight makes him prone to be bent awkwardly or forcefully taken down. Traditionally, bigger backs carry a bigger workload. Body weight is body armor. Sometimes, extraordinary athletes like Achane are just too explosive for their own good, exerting too much strain for their tissues to withstand. Here’s the deal: all football players are at high risk for injury. One could take the glass-half-empty approach with any football projection because of this fact. The primary cause of injury is two-fold. If you’re a good football player, you will touch the ball more, and if you touch the ball more, you’ll get hit more. Therefore, the better player you are, the more likely you are to get injured. If you passed on every “injury prone” player in your fantasy football drafts or sportsbook, you’re specifically avoiding the best players. The other primary cause of injury: luck. That’s it. One unlucky hit, and you’re done. Some big backs are fragile; some small backs are durable. Some players earn the “injury prone” or “iron man” title in one part of their career, then, for better or worse, the narrative flips during the next chapter of their career. Maybe De’Von Achane will simply be luckier next year; that’s my bet. He was a high volume player at Texas A&M without any durability problems. An expanded role as a receiver could be the antidote to Achane’s injury bug, decreasing his touches with increased per-touch efficiency by moving him away from the trench warfare and out into space, where wide receivers enjoy lower injury rates. 

The Dolphins have reorganized their roster. They fortified their defense with layers of depth, which may stabilize performances from that side of the ball and lead to lower-scoring game scripts. They added tight end Jonnu Smith, a more dynamic athlete than their existing tight ends, which may lead to more packages with two or three tight ends and an emphasis on ball control rather than risky passing concepts. The Dolphins did draft another dense, speedy back—Jaylen Wright out of Tennessee. If anything, this confirms McDaniel’s reliance on explosive running backs, adding strength on top of strength, indicating a RB-centric philosophy entering the season. Lastly, the Dolphins drafted two wide receivers in April and signed Odell Beckham Jr. in May, but the WR room is currently depleted by injury, so we’re unlikely to see McDaniel switch to an 11 personnel attack. The Dolphins’ acquisitions make for a more malleable and unpredictable offense, which may lead to better outcomes for De’Von Achane.

Tua is awesome, but he has weaknesses. When Tua is in a normal, structured play, he’s one of the best passers in the league, but as the difficulty of the throw increases—pressure, weather, distance, velocity—his performance can spiral into free fall. He doesn’t possess the physical traits of size, speed, and strength to overcome obstacles in his path. The Dolphins lost two key offensive lineman—center Connor Williams and guard Robert Hunt—which may lead to decreased efficiency and/or explosive play rate. Combined with a breakdown on the offensive line, Tua’s performance could become very shaky in 2024. If the pass rush gets to Tua, De’Von Achane will be available in the flat, ready to catch the check-down and make a move. 

There is target competition in Miami. Achane is not the McCaffrey of his offense. Tyreek is the top target, with Jaylen Waddle next on the totem pole, and for the rest of the targets, Achane will compete with newcomers Beckham Jr., Smith, Wright, and Malik Washington, as well as familiar faces in Raheem Mostert, Alec Ingold, Braxton Berrios, Jeff Wilson Jr., Durham Smythe, and River Cracraft. There’s only one ball in this sport, although “footballs” sounds like a fun game, too. Again, if you’re avoiding players with good teammates, you’re specifically avoiding players on the best teams, which is exactly what you should be aiming for in a fantasy football draft or betting market.

5. Conclusion

Don’t believe me? Mike McDaniel and De'Von Achane have explicitly stated that Achane is preparing to become more involved as a receiver. 

If you’re drafting your fantasy football team this week, don’t play scared. I have De’Von Achane ranked as a Round 1 player in a 12-team league, well ahead of his typical average draft position on fantasy football platforms. If betting is legal in your state, take the over. Tease Achane’s receiving prop as high as you can possibly stomach, and then take the over again. This is your moment to get in on the ground floor. 

There’s no game plan for Achane. He’s the fastest kid alive. His tape is mesmerizing and his stats are jaw-dropping. When Devon Achane leads NFL running backs in receiving yards in 2024, don’t say I didn’t warn you.